Downtown Jacksonville 2026
$6.5B+
In active and proposed development
Downtown Jacksonville has seen a substantive increase in capital commitment since 2022, positioning it among the more active urban development markets in the Southeast.
Residential Growth
+50%
Residential growth since 2019
The downtown residential population has reached approximately 8,941 — approaching the 10,000-resident threshold that urban economists associate with self-sustaining retail demand.
The Critical Window
2026–28
A high-stakes 36-month delivery window
EverBank Stadium, Pearl Square Phase 1, and the UF Graduate Campus are all scheduled for delivery in this window. Execution risk is the primary variable to monitor.
This Report
8
Districts. Peer benchmarks. Scenario analysis.
Pipeline status, peer benchmarking, district-level data, and a scenario builder for 2030 projections. All figures are sourced and dated Q1 2026.
⚡ Quick Intelligence Answers
Select a question above.
In Development All data shown is placeholder only and does not reflect verified current figures. This dashboard is under active development.
Northeast Florida Urban Intelligence Center • Q1 2026

Downtown Jacksonville:
A Measured Assessment
of the 2026 Landscape.

⚡Several long-standing structural challenges have seen measurable, documented progress since 2022. Execution risk remains elevated through 2028.
Total Pipeline$6.5B+Active & Proposed Under Construction$2.84BSince Jan 2024 Residents~8,941Approaching 10K Units Delivered 5yr1,766+50% Walk Score80#1 in Jax Office Vacancy28%Elevated vs. peers Resident Satisfaction91.6%Love/Like Downtown Whole FoodsOPENBrooklyn 2025 Stadium 202642,507Reduced capacity Stadium ReopeningAug 2028Full Capacity Units Under Const.2,052Active Occupancy Rate96%Existing Stock UF Grad Campus$300MLaVilla Publix2027 est.Pearl Square New F&B 2025+11YoY Taxable Value5-6xvs Suburbs Total Pipeline$6.5B+Active & Proposed Under Construction$2.84BSince Jan 2024 Residents~8,941Approaching 10K Units Delivered 5yr1,766+50% Walk Score80#1 in Jax Office Vacancy28%Elevated vs. peers Resident Satisfaction91.6%Love/Like Downtown Whole FoodsOPENBrooklyn 2025 Stadium 202642,507Reduced capacity Stadium ReopeningAug 2028Full Capacity Units Under Const.2,052Active Occupancy Rate96%Existing Stock UF Grad Campus$300MLaVilla Publix2027 est.Pearl Square New F&B 2025+11YoY Taxable Value5-6xvs Suburbs
Total Pipeline
$0B
Active + Proposed
Residents (Q1 2026)
0
+50% since 2019
Housing Units
0
+2,052 under construction
Under Construction
$0B
Since Jan 2024
Walk Score
0
#1 in Jax
Resident Satisfaction
0%
Love/Like Downtown
Chapter 1 of 6
Context and Current Conditions
Downtown Jacksonville has seen measurable change since 2022 across residential population, capital investment, and amenity supply. This section establishes the baseline for pipeline and scenario analysis that follows.
⚡ Context — Where Things Stand
Since 2022, downtown Jacksonville has recorded measurable gains across residential density, hospitality supply, and grocery retail — areas that had historically lagged relative to peer markets.
Residential population has grown approximately 50% since 2019. Hotel inventory has expanded. Whole Foods opened in Brooklyn in 2025. Publix has been confirmed for Pearl Square. Progress is real and measurable. Whether it continues on schedule through 2028 remains the central variable to monitor.
10-Year Population & Investment Trend
Investment and Residential Growth Have Moved in Tandem Since 2022
2015: ~2,900 residents
2019: DIA 20K goal set
2022: Inflection
2025: NAVI live
What happened
Population grew from ~2,900 to ~8,941. Pipeline reached $6.5B+. Both accelerated after 2022.
Why it matters
Co-movement is meaningful. Investment and population rising together suggests compounding momentum — particularly notable approaching ~10,000 residents.
Decision implication
2022–2025 established proof of concept. 2026–2028 is the delivery window. On-schedule projects sustain momentum; delays reduce it.
DIA 20,000-Resident Goal Progress
45% Toward Goal. 10K Threshold Approaching.
45%
of 20,000
resident goal
Residents (~8,941 / 20,000)45%
Housing Units (4,707 / 12,500 est.)37.7%
Retail Sq Ft (1M / 1.4M target)71.4%
Office Tenant Retention74.5%
⚡ The 10,000-Resident Threshold
Urban economists commonly identify 10,000 as a threshold for self-sustaining downtown retail demand. With ~8,941 residents and 2,052 units under construction at 96% occupancy, this milestone is within reach in 2026–27 under the base scenario.
🔍Section note: The data reflects a market that has shifted from stagnation to measured momentum. The 2026–2028 delivery window will clarify whether that momentum compounds or moderates.
02 — PIPELINE COMPOSITION
$6.5B+ in motion — not all at the same stage.
$2.84B is confirmed active. The remainder is in planning or review.
Top 8 Developments by Investment
Pipeline Concentration in Three Projects
Concentration note: Pearl Square, EverBank, and UF Campus represent approximately 60% of the active pipeline.
$6.5B+ Pipeline — Status Breakdown
$2.84B Confirmed Active. Remainder in Planning or Review.
Planning-stage projects carry inherent uncertainty
Historical conversion rates for comparable markets: 55–75% of proposed investment eventually delivers.
03 — RISK MATRIX & DEMOGRAPHICS
Two projects carry disproportionate weight.
Project Risk × Impact Matrix
Pearl Square and EverBank Represent the Highest Consequence Variables
EverBank: Reduced 2026 capacity (42,507 seats), away games in 2027, reopening targeted August 2028. Pearl Square: Phase 1 active; later phases carry financing and market-timing risk.
Resident Income Distribution 2025
61.4% Earn $80K+. Demand Is Income-Qualified.
67.8% rent by choice. This income profile supports demand for premium retail, F&B, and Class A amenities.
Supply-Constrained, Not Demand-Constrained
96% occupancy on existing stock with 61%+ earning $80K+ indicates a supply constraint, not a demand problem.
04 — HEADLINE METRICS
Key figures in national context.
Taxable Value Multiplier
5–6x
Downtown parcels generate 5–6x the taxable value per acre of comparable suburban land.
Office Stock
8M+
Sq ft of office space. 28% vacancy is the market's most significant structural challenge.
Retail Asking Rent
$19.24
Per sq ft — up 12% since 2022. Pearl Square adds 200,000 sq ft of retail inventory.
EU Cities Gateway
1/32
Jacksonville is one of 32 cities globally selected for the EU Cities Gateway Housing Program.
💡 Deeper Analysis
Six Figures That Reframe the Standard Narrative
Counterintuitive data points and underreported metrics — examined in context. Relevant to investors, planners, and policy analysts.
Chapter 2 of 6
Active Pipeline: What Is Under Construction
$2.84B is under active construction as of January 2024. These figures reflect confirmed permits and active sites. Delivery pace and cost management through 2028 are the primary variables.
Completed 2024–2025
$375M+
Home2 Suites · One Riverside Ph.1 · RiversEdge Parks · Riverfront Plaza Ph.1 · NAVI Transit
On-time delivery rate94%
✅94% on-time delivery compares favorably to national averages for urban infill.
Under Construction (Q1 2026)
$2.84B
Pearl Square Ph.1 · EverBank Stadium · UF Grad Campus · Union Terminal · Artea · Lofts at Cathedral
Expected delivery window2026–28
⚠EverBank and Pearl Square represent approximately 78% of this figure.
Proposed + In Review
~$3.7B
Four Seasons Hotel · Shipyards Office Tower · Related Group tower · McCoys Creek Greenway
Historical conversion rate55–75%
📊A 55–65% conversion rate produces a defensible modeling range for the proposed portion.
Unit Delivery History + Pipeline (2016–2028 est.)
2026–28 Projected to Add More Units Than the Prior Decade Combined
2,052 units under construction represents a single-cycle record. Under the base scenario, downtown crosses 10,000 residents in 2026–27.
2026–2028 Milestone Calendar
Key Deliveries Across 36 Months
Investment by Category
Residential + Mixed Use Comprises 63% of Pipeline
Residential-led pipelines tend to deliver at higher rates than commercial supply-push projects.
Annual Investment Committed 2016–2025
2023: $2.5B Committed in a Single Calendar Year
The convergence of EverBank, Pearl Square, and UF commitments within a 12-month window is uncommon for a market of this scale.
Chapter 3 of 6
Peer Benchmarking
Investment intensity is Jacksonville's most notable differentiator relative to peer markets. Office vacancy is its most significant structural liability. Both are examined here in regional and national context.
01 — PEER COMPARISON
Jacksonville leads on investment per resident. It trails on office health and walkability.
8-City Snapshot
Jacksonville vs. Peers
Investment intensity leads Florida peers
At approximately $727K per resident, Jacksonville's investment-to-resident ratio leads Florida comparables.
Strengths
Investment intensity, pipeline depth, and residential growth rate lead Florida comparables.
Weaknesses
Office vacancy (28%) is highest among Florida peers. Walkability and transit access trail Nashville and Miami.
Implication
Jacksonville presents as a late-stage emerging market — above-average upside potential with above-average execution risk.
Investment per Resident vs. Peer Cities
Jacksonville Leads Investment Intensity Among Florida Peers
Multi-Metric Radar: Jax vs. Tampa vs. Nashville
Strong on Investment. Trailing on Office Health, Transit, and Walkability.
Office Vacancy: Jacksonville in National Context (2025)
28%: A Structural Challenge Relative to Florida Peers
Residential Growth 2019–2025
+50% in Six Years From a Low Base
Florida CBD Office Vacancy (2025)
Jacksonville at 28% vs. Miami (17.6%) and Tampa (14.5%)
Chapter 4 of 6
Scenario Analysis — 2026 to 2030
Outcomes are not predetermined. The scenario builder below allows users to adjust key assumptions and observe their effect on projected 2030 metrics. Base scenario assumes 78% pipeline delivery.
⚡ SCENARIO BUILDER
Five Variables. One City. Your Model.
Context: Use this to stress-test assumptions before committing to investment positions or policy projections. Base scenario assumes 78% pipeline delivery.
🏗
Pearl Square delivers on schedule (1,250 units, 2026–27)
Publix anchor, 200K sq ft retail
+2,200 res.
🏑
EverBank reopens August 2028 at full capacity
23M+ visitors/yr, $400M+ estimated spend
+Demand
🏫
UF Grad Campus fully operational (2028–29)
3,000+ students, faculty, research activity
+3,000 res.
💸
Rate environment improves; stalled projects unlock
+$2B in additional commitments by 2027
+1,800 units
🏗
~75% of pipeline delivers on time
Some high-rises slip 12–18 months
+1,400 res.
🏑
Stadium opens August 2028 as targeted
Some ramp-up period for visitorship
+$200M/yr
🏫
UF Phase 1 delivers, Phase 2 delayed
Partial campus activation 2028–29
+1,500 res.
📞
Office vacancy stabilizes around 22%
Gradual improvement, no major rebound
Neutral
🏗
2–3 major projects stall on capital
Financing conditions remain tight through 2027
-2,200 units
🏛
Federal office pullback accelerates
Vacancy rises back toward 30%+
-Demand
🏑
Stadium delays push past 2028
Tourism recovery delayed two years
-$300M/yr
📊
Tampa and Orlando outcompete for talent
Net migration advantage narrows
Migration
Multi-Metric 2025–2032 Projection (Base Case)
Key Metrics by Year — Model-Based Estimates
Confidence: High = confirmed. Med = probable under base assumptions. Low = sensitive to execution.
Chapter 5 of 6
District-Level Analysis
Downtown Jacksonville comprises eight distinct sub-markets, each at a different stage of the development cycle. Brooklyn leads on residential delivery; LaVilla is in early-stage activation; the Sports & Entertainment District is mid-renovation.
Select a District
Each at a Different Stage of the Urban Growth Cycle
District Detail
Select a district to explore
Click any district card on the left to view data, active projects, and investment context.
Average Downtown Rent vs. Metro 2018–2025
Downtown Premium Has Compressed, Reflecting Rising Demand Against Constrained Supply
Premium compression reflects downtown demand growth outpacing supply additions. Pearl Square at $2,800+/mo is expected to re-establish the premium spread.
Crime Trend Downtown Core 2019–2025
Overall Crime Index Down ~31% Since 2019
A 31% overall decline, alongside increased foot traffic and improved lighting, reflects documented improvement in public safety conditions.
💸 Investment Return Explorer
Downtown Jacksonville Real Estate Returns by Entry Year
Select a year above.
Urban Atlas
Downtown Jacksonville — District Atlas
Hover over districts for key metrics. Click to navigate to district-level data.
Downtown Jacksonville • Q1 2026 • 8 Districts
$6.5B+ Pipeline Active
ST. JOHNS RIVER MAIN ST. ACOSTA FULLER WARREN HART LaVilla UF Campus $300M NorthCore Pearl Square $750M Cathedral Hill City Center Riverfront Plaza Sports & Ent. EverBank $1.4B+ Working Waterfront Brooklyn Whole Foods - Walk 80 Southbank RiversEdge - Artea 390u NORTHBANK SOUTHBANK BAY ST PEARL SQUARE EVERBANK UF CAMPUS RIVERFRONT PLAZA ONE RIVERSIDE
Districts
Key Anchors
●Pearl Square (pulsing)
●EverBank Stadium (pulsing)
○UF Grad Campus
○Riverfront Plaza
○One Riverside
N
0.25 mi
District boundaries are approximate. Stylized, not to geodetic scale. Source: DVI Q1 2026Hover districts for data — Click to explore
Data Intelligence

Six Figures That Reframe the Standard Narrative

These are not the headline figures. They are the data points that tend to shift analytical frameworks — counterintuitive, underreported, or context-dependent in ways that matter for decision-making.